Music creatives and indie labels aren’t aware of what’s coming to the music industry. Many feel the music industry is dead, but it’s only reconstructing itself. Because people forget history and are doomed to repeat it, let me bring some things to your attention about this reconstruction so you don’t get caught in the sauce of this new music industry.
The YouTube Generation
Creatives have been held captive but also freed at the same time in the YouTube generation. During this era, CDs had a fallout, and P2P file sharing gave way to streaming. Now, we are at the beginning stages of streaming 2.0, a reinvented way to consume music via the internet.
2025: Artists Will Push for D2C Aggressively
In 2024, we’ve seen the ramping up of artists promoting their releases on direct-to-consumer platforms. This momentum will close out the year, further weakening streaming platforms. In 2025, D2C will become commonplace among artists, and we will begin to see clever ways of selling music and experiences directly to the consumer via digital platforms. We may also see Apple Music taking market share from Spotify because it already has the infrastructure to relaunch parts of iTunes back into Apple Music.
2026: EVEN Will Go Head-to-Head with Bandcamp
I see this coming a mile away. EVEN will go head-to-head with Bandcamp. Neither will win. It will be Coke vs. Pepsi, and some will choose one over the other. I recognize the benefits of both, but EVEN would be my choice. Bandcamp will be for the starters, and EVEN will be for the intermediates. You can’t discover on EVEN yet, but on Bandcamp, you can. If EVEN builds in discovery options by 2026 with a charting system, it will be the biggest D2C platform by 2030.
2027: Majors Will Emerge with D2C Built-In
By 2027, major labels will create a D2C platform that supports the big three, or they will partner with Apple Music to bring back catalog to this new selling format that the general public is now beginning to accept. Once majors do this, streaming 2.0 will become culture.
2028: Pay-to-Stream Albums Will Be the New Standard
By 2028, the general public will reminisce about how streaming was the good old days when you could get music for less than a penny, just like baby boomers would say a loaf of bread cost them 75 cents. The cycle continues.
Getting People to Buy Directly from You Is Hard!
Getting people to stream your music is currently hard because of the evolution of social media. Many music listeners are stuck on social media without being converted off the platform. This puts the ball back in your court as an artist to step up your creation and production game.
Do You Think Apple Music Will Be the Saving Grace?
I think Apple Music will be the place where majors and indies come together to sell, and people who want a better experience and profit share will stick to EVEN and Bandcamp.
How Will the Indies Win Under This New System?
It will force better creativity and experience building. At the same time, it will allow the indie to get more cash to finance more operations quicker. Real sales numbers and cash flow will relieve mathematic complications and allow the true market movers to shine.
TikTok Music: The Snake in the Grass
TikTok Music has yet to be launched in the US, but when it does, it will add a bit of competition to the likes of EVEN and the potential of what Apple Music could be. TikTok Music will allow consumers to enjoy content, save music directly to playlists, and interact with their artists in a community format without leaving the Bytedance ecosystem. The conversion speed will be extremely fast, giving other platforms a run for their money.
What You Need in Place to Support the Cash Flow
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Jumping on D2C Early
Jumping on D2C early will sharpen your sales skills before those who are still stuck on streaming come to market. D2C sales are an extreme beast that takes time to learn. So, if you learn it when the public is new to it, it will make you stronger for the time when people are ready to spend money this way.
Letting the Industry Pass You By
Letting the industry pass you by will cause you to fall behind on technology just like those who think AI will go away. Once you figure out that the technology isn’t going anywhere, as the noise floor creeps up, it becomes harder to pierce through the noise just like with streaming, or at the end of the CD era when everyone could burn CDs.
Conclusion: The Transformation
This is the beginning of the record industry all over again, and we’ve just been through a massive reconstruction phase. Now we’re entering phase two. Picture the 1920s big band era and records not existing. You just have a live show experience or get to hear it on the radio in certain select markets. By 1948, vinyl records hit the consumer markets for purchase so people could enjoy them in their homes. We are at that point now, but it's 2024. Streaming was the new radio, and D2C is the new vinyl. Over the next 10 years, D2C/Streaming 2.0 will change the music experience for artists and consumers.
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